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South Carolinians mirroring national parties on issues

By Andy Brack

Perhaps the most interesting thing to come out of the new Winthrop/ETV political poll is how South Carolina’s partisans mirror national opinions.

Throughout October, researchers phoned more than 1,500 registered voters, almost 500 of whom were not included in final results because they weren’t identified as likely voters in the 2008 presidential primaries. Either they were members of other parties, were independents or weren’t sure they would even vote. In other words, about a third of those contacted identified as Republicans, a third as Democrats or and a third as something else - - the three-way split that most political observers say is the true reflection of the electorate as a whole.

Those who completed interviews - - 522 likely GOP primary voters and 534 likely Democratic primary voters - - tended to include more true believers of their political parties, noted Winthrop pollster Scott Huffmon.

“The hard core partisans are mirroring the national party lines in these issues on things in ways you wouldn’t see with weaker partisans and moderates in the sample,” he said.

With South Carolinians often priding themselves on independence, stubbornness and taking a different path, it was a little surprising how likely voters here so strongly reflected national attitudes.

For example, when asked whether they approved or disapproved on how President Bush was performing, 62 percent of Republicans approved along with 8 percent of Democrats. Mirroring national figures, though, some 88 percent of Democrats – seven out of eight – disapproved (along with 23 percent of Republicans.)

Similar partisan splits were in opinions on the war in Iraq. Two in three Republicans, but only 10 percent of Democrats, said the war made the country safer. Some 78 percent of Democrats and 22 percent of Republicans said it created additional security threats.

Finally, key issues of importance among likely Democratic primary voters in South Carolina were similar to people across the country: Iraq war (30.8 percent), health care (24.8) and the economy (8.3). Among GOP primary voters, top issues were more spread out, but indicated a vastly different mindset: Illegal immigration (18.2 percent), Iraq (16.4), economy (8.4), security/terrorism (7.8) and health care (7.6).

Now, let’s look at the poll’s horse race results where Fred Thompson was narrowly ahead of Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani among Republicans while Hillary Clinton remained on top in the Democratic field. For better or worse, here are our observations:

Thompson. While Thompson hasn’t been in the race long, the more the former senator from Tennessee opens his mouth, the more votes he seems to lose. He also seems to be the laziest candidate in the race, judging by his seeming lack of enthusiasm. By the time the GOP primary comes along, he’ll be trailing.

Romney. After hiring some of the smartest and meanest SC consultants and spending jillions of dollars, Romney is the one to watch in South Carolina. While some are spouting that the Mormon former governor isn’t a “real Christian,” his views were good enough for Bob Jones III in Greenville.

Giuliani. New York’s former mayor does well as “Captain America” when talking about September 11, terrorism and security. But his personal life story isn’t as attractive, which may be why his poll numbers are dropping some in South Carolina.

John McCain. The Arizona senator who got burned by the Bushies in 2000 is back to his former “straight talk” self, but his time seems to have passed.

Clinton. Short of putting a big foot in her mouth, Clinton seems to be on a roll in South Carolina. But now that other candidates are attacking her “electability” in November, her solid lead may wither in the important next three months.

Obama. The freshman senator from Illinois has a great statewide campaign organization, but he’s not really connecting yet. He’d better start drawing blood soon and stop seeming like a professor or South Carolina won’t be his breakthrough state.

John Edwards. The South Carolina native who won here four years ago had less than 10 percent of Democratic primary voters, a sure sign that he’s fading here like elsewhere. Undecided. Almost 30 percent of voters on both sides were undecided. They’ll be the deciders.

Prognostication: It’s a little early to step out on a limb, but look for a Clinton-Bill Richardson ticket for Democrats and a Romney-led GOP ticket to have a national congressional leader as a running mate.